Limits to Growth
Limits to Growth: Time is Running Out The Clock is Ticking
In 1972 the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) published a book referred to as “Limits to Growth“. They predicted that the continuation to prioritize GDP growth without imposing limits on ourselves that “the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity”, leading to societal collapse. The book also suggests that if we strive for a state of global equilibrium by imposing limits on ourselves and our production of material goods, we can create a sustainable society where we can live indefinitely on earth. The book can be downloaded from the Club of Rome.
A simple example of Limits to Growth. Imagine there is a beautiful small lake in the countryside. The lake is a popular spot for fishing, swimming, and boating. It provides an enjoyable environment for people to relax and connect with nature.
Now, let’s consider the lake’s capacity as a limit to growth. Initially, there are only a few visitors who come to enjoy the lake’s offerings. With a small number of people, the lake can comfortably accommodate fishing boats, swimmers, and maintain a healthy fish population.
However, if more and more people start visiting the lake, bringing their fishing boats, engaging in water activities, and fishing intensively, there will come a point where the lake’s capacity is strained. The increased number of boats, activities and fishing will disrupt the ecosystem, depleting fish population, and degrading water quality. Over time, the lake will gradually deteriorate unable to replenish itself becoming unsuitable and unhealthy for the population to use.
In 2020, Gaya Herrington, Director of Advisory, Sustainability Services, KPMG US, updated the data in “Limits to Growth“, and confirmed the study’s conclusion that if society continues on its current path of “Business as Usual”, economic growth could end around 2030. Additionally, if pollution and greenhouse gases continue to be ignored, it could lead to societal collapse. However, Herrington believes that if we act quickly and work diligently, this can be avoided.